The Predictive Potential of the Kinetic Model of Aging of Living Systems in Demography


  • Alexander Alexandrovich Victorov State Research Center Burnasyan Federal Medical Biophysical Center of Federal Medical Biological Agency, Moscow, Russia
  • Viacheslav Alexandrovich Kholodnov Kotelnikov Institute of Radio Engineering and Electronics of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia



An original mathematical model, previously tested by the authors on other non-demographic objects, is proposed for describing and forecasting demographic systems — the population of the countries of the World using the examples of the USA, China and Russia, as well as the number of mice in the “mouse paradise” experiment of the American scientist John Calhoun. The proposed approach allows us to describe the stages and features of this dynamics: population growth in the USA, growth and possible decrease in the population in China, loss of a part of the population of the Russian Empire and the USSR due to two world wars and the collapse of the USSR, biological degradation of the “mouse paradise” up to its complete extinction. The use of the kinetic model of aging of various types of living systems to predict the development of the number of demographic systems is based on the assumptions that the aging and development processes are related to each other and have the same statistical regularity, reflecting the fractal principle of Nature - the unity of structure and function. The results obtained suggest that a person, a population of the World, humanity and other biological species develop and simultaneously age like each other under the conditions of the always existing syndrome of general adaptation (stress) and according to the same pattern corresponding to the mathematical model proposed here.  


Model;Kinetic Theory;Dynamics;Population;Living System;General adaptation syndrome;Stress.


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How to Cite

Victorov, A. A., & Kholodnov, V. A. (2020). The Predictive Potential of the Kinetic Model of Aging of Living Systems in Demography. Journal of Geriatric Medicine, 1(2), 1–7.


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